ISLAMABAD (PEN) : The United States and China resumed semi-official nuclear arms talks in March, marking the first such dialogue in five years. During these discussions, Beijing’s representatives assured their U.S. counterparts that they would not resort to nuclear threats concerning Taiwan. This assurance followed concerns raised by U.S. delegates that China might consider using nuclear weapons if faced with defeat in a conflict over Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its territory despite Taipei’s democratic governance.
According to David Santoro, the U.S. organizer of the Track Two talks, the Chinese delegation expressed confidence in their ability to achieve victory in a conventional conflict over Taiwan without needing to resort to nuclear weapons. Track Two talks involve former officials and academics who can provide insights into their governments’ positions, though they are not directly involved in formal government negotiations (Track One).
The discussions, held in a Shanghai hotel conference room, involved about half a dozen U.S. delegates, including former officials and scholars, while Beijing’s delegation included scholars and analysts, including former People’s Liberation Army officers.
While these talks are seen as beneficial by some, including U.S. officials, they do not replace formal negotiations that require authoritative government participation, as emphasized by a State Department spokesperson. The U.S. and China have had strained relations over various economic and geopolitical issues, despite briefly resuming formal Track One nuclear arms talks in November.
The Pentagon estimates that China’s nuclear arsenal increased by over 20% between 2021 and 2023, highlighting concerns about Beijing’s nuclear policies and its military activities around Taiwan. The Track Two discussions are part of a broader dialogue on nuclear weapons and posture that stalled after the Trump administration withdrew funding in 2019 but resumed semi-officially following the COVID-19 pandemic.
Despite frustrations on both sides during the talks, organizers like Santoro believe there is merit in continuing discussions. The next planned discussions are slated for 2025.
