ISLAMABAD (PEN) : New research highlights the potential significance of the British-Muslim vote in approximately 100 constituencies, particularly in swing seats across the UK.
According to findings from the campaign group “The Muslim Vote” and the right-wing “Henry Jackson Society” (HJS), the Muslim population exceeds 10% in about 100 constituencies. The HJS specifically identifies 120 constituencies where the Muslim vote could have a decisive impact, particularly in swing seats.
The research by HJS also reveals that Islam is the largest minority religion in 129 out of the 220 most marginal seats in the upcoming general election, comprising 58.6% of these seats. Hinduism, Sikhism, and Judaism also feature as significant minority religions in a smaller number of marginal seats.
Electoral Calculus defines marginal seats as those where the margin of victory is expected to be 10% or less, based on their analysis. Martin Baxter from Electoral Calculus noted that recent polling indicates religion plays a significant role in voter behavior.
The influence of Muslim voters was notably demonstrated in recent local elections, where candidates running on a Gaza-focused platform defeated Labour rivals in several areas with high Muslim populations like Blackburn, Bradford, Pendle, Oldham, Luton, London, and Manchester. This outcome dealt a significant blow to Labour’s historical support in these regions.
“The Muslim Vote,” a coalition of grassroots Muslim organizations, aims to increase Muslim voter participation and has identified approximately 92 constituencies where Muslims constitute over 10% of the electorate.
Despite these findings, it is acknowledged that the Muslim community is diverse and does not vote uniformly due to political, ethnic, and sectarian differences.
