ISLAMABAD (PEN) : India is weighing plans to significantly increase its use of water from the Indus river system, a move that could impact Pakistan’s critical agricultural sector. The development follows heightened tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbours after a recent deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, which New Delhi has blamed on Pakistan—a claim Islamabad denies.
Treaty in Jeopardy
Shortly after the attack, which killed 26 civilians in Pahalgam, India suspended its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960. Although the two countries reached a ceasefire agreement last week after their worst hostilities in decades, India has not moved to reinstate the treaty.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has since directed officials to fast-track infrastructure projects on the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus rivers—all of which are allocated primarily for Pakistan’s use under the treaty. One key proposal involves extending the Ranbir Canal on the Chenab River from 60 km to 120 km, enabling India to divert up to 150 cubic meters of water per second—nearly four times its current usage.
Strategic Concerns and International Response
Experts warn that while these projects would take years to complete, they represent a fundamental shift in regional water politics. “Any efforts to stop or divert water belonging to Pakistan would be considered an act of war,” Pakistan stated after India’s suspension of the treaty in April.
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar told parliament that Islamabad had formally protested the move and considers the treaty to remain legally in effect. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb further emphasized that “water should not be weaponised” and warned against actions that disregard the treaty framework.
Pakistan has also indicated it will pursue legal remedies through international platforms including the World Bank, the Permanent Court of Arbitration, and the International Court of Justice.
A System Under Strain
The Indus river system is vital to Pakistan, supporting around 80% of its farmland and much of its hydropower infrastructure. Any disruptions to the flow of water could severely impact the country’s agriculture and energy sectors.
The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, is often hailed as one of the most resilient water-sharing agreements globally, having endured multiple conflicts. However, India now argues that the treaty is outdated due to population growth and increased energy demands, and has been seeking its renegotiation since 2023.
India is reportedly exploring at least five water storage projects—four of which are located on tributaries of the Chenab and Jhelum rivers—raising further concerns in Islamabad.
Regional Repercussions
Water security analysts warn that India’s shift in policy could set a dangerous precedent. David Michel, a senior expert from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said, “As geopolitical competition across the region deepens, more than a few Indian observers fear that Delhi’s use of water against Islamabad risks licensing Beijing to adopt the same strategy against India.”
The evolving situation underscores the growing strategic importance of water in South Asia and adds another layer of complexity to already tense regional dynamics.
