ISLAMABAD (PEN) : India has initiated a series of controversial hydropower projects in the disputed Ladakh region, sparking alarm in Pakistan over potential violations of the Indus Waters Treaty and threats to regional stability.
The development was brought to international attention through a formal letter sent by Pakistani water expert Engineer Arshad H. Abbasi to United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres. Abbasi alleged that India’s actions not only contravene the long-standing water-sharing agreement but also risk drastically reducing the flow of the Indus River into Pakistan.
Multiple Projects Raise Treaty Concerns
According to Abbasi, India is advancing a master plan for multiple 10-megawatt hydropower projects in areas including Achinathang, Sanjak, Parfi La, Batalik, and Khaltsi. These installations, located in the contested territory of Ladakh, allegedly exceed the water storage capacity allowed under the Indus Waters Treaty.
Abbasi stated that two previous projects — the 45-megawatt Nimo Bazgo and 44-megawatt Chutak — have already breached the treaty’s limits and are being used to support Indian military installations, particularly in the glacial Siachen region. He further claimed the new projects are intended to provide energy for troops while leaving the local civilian population in Ladakh underserved during harsh winters.
“This ruthless action is a death sentence for Pakistan and an attempt to dismantle the ancient Indus Valley civilization,” Abbasi wrote, urging the UN to intervene and help restore the treaty’s original provisions.
Pakistan Warns of Escalation
Tensions escalated in April when India suspended its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty. According to a Reuters report, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi subsequently ordered an acceleration of infrastructure development on the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum rivers — all primarily designated for Pakistan under the treaty.
Key among these is the proposed expansion of the historic Ranbir Canal on the Chenab River. Indian officials are considering doubling its length to 120 km, which could potentially increase water diversion from 40 to 150 cubic meters per second. Pakistani officials have called this a provocation, warning that “any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan” constitutes an “act of war.”
Nearly 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture relies on the Indus river system, as do many of the country’s hydropower facilities, making the stakes particularly high.
China’s Strategic Leverage and Regional Risk
The situation has drawn global attention, with The Diplomat warning that any disruption to the Indus River flow could prompt China to retaliate by impeding the Brahmaputra River, which supplies nearly one-third of India’s water and powers over 44% of its hydroelectric output. China is already building dams along the Brahmaputra, intensifying the regional water race.
International observers, including US-based analyst David Michel, have cautioned that such unilateral actions could further destabilize the region. “As geopolitical competition across the region deepens, more than a few Indian observers fear that Delhi’s use of water against Islamabad risks licensing Beijing to adopt the same strategy against India,” Michel noted.
Legal and Diplomatic Fallout
Pakistan has announced plans to pursue legal recourse through international forums such as the World Bank, the Permanent Court of Arbitration, and potentially the International Court of Justice in The Hague.
“Water should not be weaponised,” Pakistani Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said in an interview with Reuters. “We don’t even want to consider any scenario which does not take into account the reinstatement of this treaty.”
Meanwhile, the Indian government continues to push forward with hydropower ambitions in Jammu and Kashmir, with a goal of raising power capacity from 3,360 megawatts to 12,000 megawatts. Internal documents reportedly detail five major storage dam projects under consideration on tributaries of the Chenab and Jhelum rivers.
Strategic and Political Implications
The Kashmir conflict remains at the heart of the water dispute, with experts noting that India’s new posture on the Indus Waters Treaty may be part of a broader strategy to isolate Pakistan diplomatically.
“Delhi has not only progressively narrowed the scope of bilateral talks but has also curtailed the agenda, focusing only on specific issues like the IWT,” said Happymon Jacob, a foreign affairs expert at Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University.
As both nations gear up for a prolonged legal and diplomatic standoff, the fate of one of the world’s most successful water-sharing accords — which has withstood wars and decades of hostility — hangs in the balance.
