ISLAMABAD (PEN) : Despite contributing less than 1% to global greenhouse gas emissions, Pakistan faces disproportionately high economic damage from climate change, according to recent assessments by the World Bank and local experts. Extreme weather events, environmental degradation, and water scarcity are taking a severe toll on the country’s economy — especially its agriculture sector — threatening national development and food security.
Climate Impacts Driving Economic Decline
The World Bank has projected that unchecked climate trends could reduce Pakistan’s GDP by 18–20% by 2050. Annual economic losses from climate-linked disasters currently range between \$3 billion and \$14 billion. In 2022 alone, unprecedented floods submerged one-third of the country, causing over \$40 billion in damage and displacing more than 33 million people.
Senator Sherry Rehman, Pakistan’s former climate minister, called for an environmental emergency in response to the escalating threats. “It would be wrong to say we’re in the top 10 — unfortunately, we are number one,” she said, referring to Pakistan’s top ranking on the 2022 Climate Risk Index. Rehman urged global action, calling for international aid and climate justice for low-emission countries like Pakistan.
Agriculture and Livestock Facing Collapse
Agriculture, which contributes nearly 20% to Pakistan’s GDP and employs 38% of the labor force, is under extreme stress. Erratic rainfall, unseasonal heatwaves, and declining water availability have reduced productivity across key crops:
Wheat: Warmer winters and shortened growing seasons have decreased per-acre yields, particularly in Punjab. Forecasts from the Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC) suggest a 12–15% drop in output over the next decade.
Rice and Cotton: Delayed monsoons and pest infestations are slashing rice production, while cotton — once dubbed “white gold” — saw a 35% output drop in FY 2022–23 due to excess rain and disease.
Sugarcane and Pulses: Water-intensive sugarcane cultivation is becoming unsustainable amid groundwater depletion. Pulses, essential for low-income households, are declining in drought-hit areas like Tharparkar.
Fruits: Mango production has declined 20–30% due to premature flowering caused by rising temperatures. Citrus crops are facing fungal outbreaks and disrupted ripening cycles.
Livestock, which accounts for nearly 60% of agricultural GDP, is also suffering. Heatwaves and prolonged droughts have led to increased animal deaths and reduced milk production. In Balochistan and Sindh, worsening water scarcity is killing goats and sheep, while livestock diseases are spreading more widely due to changing climates.
Water Crisis Looming Large
Pakistan is now classified as a “water-stressed” country and is edging closer to “water-scarce” status, with per capita water availability dropping below 1,000 cubic meters. Glacial melt initially increases river flows but poses a long-term threat to water sustainability. Meanwhile, canal irrigation systems — the backbone of agriculture — are increasingly unreliable due to upstream water politics and mismanagement.
Fires, Floods, and the Hidden Costs of Inaction
Climate volatility is manifesting in both floods and wildfires. Flash floods are more frequent, and 2023 saw over 100 wildfire incidents in the Margalla Hills alone. Such events not only damage infrastructure and agriculture but also undermine biodiversity, public health, and tourism.
Bird habitats and wetland ecosystems are degrading rapidly. Migratory birds now bypass Pakistan due to drying wetlands such as Haleji and Manchar, diminishing the country’s ecological diversity and tourism potential. High temperatures have also increased poultry mortality, affecting food supplies and peri-urban employment.
Urgent Need for Policy and Global Support
Experts are calling for a coordinated national response that includes:
Investment in climate-resilient agriculture and drought-resistant seed varieties
Expansion of water storage infrastructure and smart irrigation systems
Development of early warning systems for floods and fire
Financial incentives for crop diversification and reforestation
International climate finance, including support from the Loss and Damage Fund
Without immediate action, climate shocks risk entrenching poverty and derailing Pakistan’s economic recovery. The growing economic burden highlights a stark reality: climate change is no longer a distant threat but a present crisis that demands both national reform and international solidarity.
