ISLAMABAD (PEN) : Pakistan’s economy has officially crossed the \$410 billion mark for the first time, according to the National Economic Survey 2024–25 released ahead of the federal budget presentation scheduled for Tuesday.
The milestone comes amid better-than-expected industrial growth and subdued inflation, although the country fell short of several other economic targets, particularly in the agriculture and services sectors.
Economic Overview: Growth Below Target
The government had set a GDP growth target of 3.6% for the fiscal year 2024–25. However, actual growth was recorded at 2.7%, driven primarily by the industrial sector, which exceeded expectations. Inflation was significantly lower than the 12% target, standing at just 5%.
Per capita income was also below projections, reported at Rs509,174 against a target of Rs543,968—short by over Rs34,000.
Sectoral Highlights
Industrial Sector Outperforms
Target: 4.4%
Achieved: 4.8%
Growth in this sector was supported by gains in textiles, automobiles, tobacco, garments, and petroleum products. However, declines were observed in food processing, chemicals, steel, and electrical machinery.
Agriculture Sector Underperforms
Target: 2%
Achieved: 0.6%
Major crops witnessed a sharp 13.5% decline, with cotton production falling by 30.7%, maize by 15.4%, and wheat by 8.9%. Minor crops fared better, exceeding targets with a 4.8% growth rate.
Services Sector Misses Mark
Target:* 4.1%
Achieved:* 2.9%
While construction and electricity supply saw notable gains—6.6% and 28.9% growth respectively—the overall services sector lagged behind.
Revenue & Fiscal Indicators
Total revenue surged by 36.7% to Rs13,367 billion. The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) exceeded its indirect tax collection goal, recording Rs8,393 billion against a target of Rs7,799 billion. The tax-to-GDP ratio also rose from 6% to 8%.
Private sector borrowing grew significantly, from Rs294 billion to Rs870 billion, reflecting renewed confidence in the economy.
Upcoming Budget 2025–26: Key Expectations
Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb is set to present a Rs17.6 trillion federal budget for FY2025–26 in Parliament on June 10. The government estimates total revenue collection at Rs19.4 trillion, with FBR assigned a target of Rs14.13 trillion.
Debt Servicing:
Rs6.2 trillion has been earmarked for debt servicing, highlighting ongoing fiscal challenges.
Defense & Development Spending:
Defense: Expected 18% increase
Education: Rs13.58 billion
Health: Rs14.3 billion
Digital Economy & IT:* Rs16.22 billion
Salaries & Pensions:
A 10% salary increase is proposed for government employees. Pensions may rise by 5%–7.5%.
Parliamentary Budget Schedule
The National Assembly will observe the following timeline:
June 10: Budget presentation
June 13–21: General debate
June 23–26: Discussions and voting on budget provisions
June 27: Conclusion with supplementary grant approvals
Adjustments to this schedule may be made only with approval from Speaker Sardar Ayaz Sadiq.
While the economy shows signs of stabilization, Pakistan faces persistent structural challenges. The 2025–26 budget will be a key test of the government’s ability to maintain fiscal discipline while fostering inclusive growth. The Economic Survey, to be formally released by Finance Minister Aurangzeb today at 2:30 PM, will offer deeper insight into the nation’s financial trajectory.
